Chủ Nhật, 31 tháng 10, 2010

Every Vote Counts: Latest Intrade Data Has GOP Picking Up 8 Senate Seats, With 12 Still In Reach

The prediction market InTrade has an impressive -- but not perfect -- record at forecasting elections.

The latest numbers for the Senate show eight pickups for the GOP with three or four more possible.

California's 18 is misleading: the number has swung wildly throughout the campaign season and promises to do so leading up til Tuesday given the breaking reports that Boxer used her position to airdrop $8 million to her son.

The numbers represent, essentially, the percentage of probability and range from 0 to 100, with the latter number indicating a virtual lock.

52 -- Democrats to control the Senate after 2010 Congressional Elections
41 -- AK Senate -- Republican Party candidate (Miller) to win
98 -- AR Senate -- Republican Party candidate (Boozman) to win +1
18 -- CA Senate -- Republican Party candidate (Fiorina) to win
65 -- CO Senate -- Republican Party candidate (Buck) to win +1
98 -- CT Senate -- Democrat Party candidate (Blumenthal) to win
91 -- DE Senate -- Democrat Party candidate (Coons) to win
90 -- FL Senate -- Republican Party candidate (Rubio) to win
67 -- IL Senate -- Republican Party candidate (Kirk) to win +1
95 -- IN Senate -- Republican Party candidate (Coats) to win +1
95 -- KY Senate -- Republican Party candidate (Paul) to win
94 -- MO Senate -- Republican Party candidate (Blunt) to win
74 -- NV Senate -- Republican Party candidate (Angle) to win +1
97 -- ND Senate -- Republican Party candidate (Kirk) to win +1
91 -- PA Senate -- Republican Party candidate (Toomey) to win +1
69 -- WA Senate -- Democrat Party candidate (Murray) to win
73 -- WV Senate -- Democrat Party candidate (Manchin) to win
90 -- WI Senate -- Republican Party candidate (Johnson) to win +1

All this means is that every... vote... counts. The stakes for this country could not be higher. Don't take anything for granted.

We must send wave after wave after wave of patriots to the polls early Tuesday morning.

You don't have to storm a beach or drop into the Stan.

You just have to vote. Wake up at 4:00am if you have to. Be the first in line and cast your vote for liberty.


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