Sources: "Budget Committee is all smoke and mirrors" -- Slaughter Solution Will Be Used "Likely Wednesday"

Operative 'Deep Tort' sent us this update at 5:31pm from his sources inside the House. This information jibes with late-breaking reports that Pelosi has several options on the table.

I am still hearing the scenario I circulated earlier (listed below as Scenario 2, "Slaughter Solution 1") is the most likely. But here are the 5 possible scenarios for moving health care through the House.

	Senate Bill (Senate Amendment to H.R. 3950)	Reconciliation "Sidecar" (yet to be reported by Budget Committee
Scenario 1: "Play it Straight"	Rule provides for an up or down vote	Rule provides for an up or down vote
Scenario 2: "Slaughter Solution 1"	Rule "deems" the Senate bill passed immediately and sends the bill to the President	Rule provides for an up or down vote
Scenario 3: "Slaughter Solution 2"	Rule "deems" the Senate bill passed upon House adoption of reconciliation sidecar	Rule provides for an up or down vote
Scenario 4: "Slaughter Solution 3"	Rule "deems" the Senate bill passed when the Senate passes the reconciliation sidecar	Rule provides for an up or down vote
Scenario 5: "The Double Whammy"	Rule #2 "deems the Senate bill passed immediately and sends the bill to the resident	Rule #1 allows the Rules Committee to turn off the motion to recommit Rule #2 "deems" the sidecar bill passed immediately and sends the bill to the Senate

Later (6:30pm ET):

The budget committee is all smoke and mirrors. They are required to pass out a budget reconciliation bill in order to start the process. They just dressed up an old version of the House bill in reconciliation clothes so Pelosi and the rules committee have a vehicle they can completely amend with their own reconciliation instructions.

Likely Wednesday, the rules committee will report a rule which essentially does 3 things. 1) sets the time for debate; 2) makes 1 substitute amendment in order; and 3) deems the Senate bill passed.

The House will proceed on 3 votes on health care.

1) approval of the rule (this will be the big vote since it passes the Senate bill by default)
2) approval of the leadership/rules Amendment in the nature of the substitute (strip the budget committee text with the leadership text)
3) final passage

Thoughts appreciated.

Related:
• Fourteen Months of Hell: A Brief, Illustrated History of the Ill-Fated Democrat Health Care Nationalization Efforts of 2009-10
• The 'Slaughter Solution' -- the Legislative Equivalent of Martial Law