analysis policy in all the world

Thứ Hai, 25 tháng 4, 2011

Larwyn's Linx: MI Court Establishes ‘Blasphemy’-Free Zone for Religion

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QOTD: "TrendingRight is kinda like a Larwyn's Linx that's always updated, like if Larwyn was a ruthlessly efficient automoton who spent vast amounts of computing power scouring the Internet for conservative news." --Me. Just now.

Chủ Nhật, 24 tháng 4, 2011

China floats the idea of selling two-thirds of its US debt. Say, I wonder what will happen to gas and food prices when that happens?

With Ben Bernanke's "Quantitative Easing" 2.0 coming to an end, this news from China could represent the proverbial 'perfect storm'.

China Proposes To Cut Two Thirds Of Its $3 Trillion In USD Holdings

All those who were hoping global stock markets would surge tomorrow based on a ridiculous rumor that China would revalue the CNY by 10% will have to wait. Instead, China has decided to serve the world another surprise...

...China appears to be getting ready to cut its USD reserves by roughly the amount of dollars that was recently printed by the Fed, or $2 trillion or so. And to think that this comes just as news that the Japanese pension fund will soon be dumping who knows what. So, once again, how about that "end of QE" again?

...Xia Bin, a member of the monetary policy committee of the central bank, said ... that China should invest its foreign exchange reserves more strategically, using them to acquire resources and technology needed for the real economy...

And as if the public sector making it all too clear what is about to happen was not enough, here is the private one as well:

...China should reduce its excessive foreign exchange reserves and further diversify its holdings, Tang Shuangning, chairman of China Everbright Group, said on Saturday... Tang's remarks echoed the stance of Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of China's central bank, who said on Monday that China's foreign exchange reserves "exceed our reasonable requirement" and that the government should upgrade and diversify its foreign exchange management using the excessive reserves...

...While China is certainly tired of recycling US Dollars, it still has no viable alternative... But that will all change very soon. Once the push for broad Chinese currency acceptance is in play, the CNY and the USD will be unpegged, promptly followed by China dumping the bulk of its USD exposure, and also sending the world a message that US debt is no longer a viable investment opportunity.

In fact, we are confident that the reval is a likely a key preceding step to any strategic decision vis-a-vis US FX exposure (read bond purchasing/selling intentions). As such, all those Americans pushing China to revalue, may want to consider that such an action could well guarantee hyperinflation, once the Fed is stuck as being the only buyer of US debt.

Expect commodity prices -- especially oil and food -- to continue compensating for the insane fiscal policies of the current administration. By that I mean they will skyrocket.

What Obama and the Democrats have done with their deficit spending is truly awful. They have levied the most oppressive tax possible on the poor and middle class, making food and transportation far more expensive than under the evil Bush administration.

Remember in 2012.

Those Nefarious and Evil Oil Speculators

As President Obama launches faux investigations of oil price-fixing (helpful tip for Democrats: pricing is dictated by a phenomenon called 'supply-and-demand', an economic principle that has guided pricing since the dawn of human trading activity), his Chavez-like rhetoric has targeted greedy "speculators".

It turns out that in this matter, like so many others, the President must ignore facts, logic and reason. Because national oil companies control nearly 95% of all petroleum reserves.

It is easy to show that Obama's attack on the oil companies is baseless. To begin with, what do "subsidies" have to do with high gas prices? I assume that by "subsidies" Obama means that there is still some oil company income that the government doesn't tax. But the effect of a tax break is to lower prices, not raise them. On the other hand, the government does raise the price of gasoline, very significantly, by levying massive taxes on gasoline at both the federal and state levels. In fact, the government profits much more from the money you pay at the pump than any American oil company does...

Many people do not realize that the American oil companies are relatively minor producers on the international scene. Because of our restrictive drilling policies, they do not have access to substantial quantities of oil in the ground. They are major refiners, but relatively small producers of crude oil. The largest American oil company, Exxon-Mobil, barely registers in terms of control over supplies of crude oil...

...It is too bad that demagoguery isn't a useful product. If it were, the Obama administration could add materially to our GDP.

That's a hell of a good point.

The kind of horses*** this administration manufactures would prove exceedingly useful in promoting organic gardening, like FLOTUS' "health eatin' garden" at the White House.

Larwyn's Linx: The Constitutional politics of the TEA Party movement

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Nation

The Constitutional politics of the TEA Party movement: ProWis
Obama Visits the S(lush) F(und) Bay Area: Zombie
Your daily dose of Allen West awesomeness: WZ

Obama driving brutal work schedule: WZ
Hollywood Calls for 5 and 1/2 More Years of Obama: Malkin
Obama Charms Left Coast: Politico

The Europeanization of America: GoV
MI Jury finds that Muslims can't control themselves: Patterico
Dear Rolling Stone: RSM

Economy

Obama's Policies Driving the Speculators He Rails Against: Ace
Dollar's Decline Speeds Up, With Risks for U.S.: WSJ
California’s Bond Rating Equals F-Minus Grade: Cal Watchdog

Left Upset Ryan’s Budget Plan Not Raising America’s Ire: RWN
It's Now Illegal to Relocate to a Business-Friendly State: Bruce
Welfare handouts aren't fair – and the public knows it: Telegraph

Climate & Energy

Brilliant! Smartest President Ever Claims That Eliminating Fuel Subsidies Will Lower Gas Prices: GWP
$6.00 A Gallon. Count On It.: Ace
Just in Time for Earth Day, Washington State Sucker-Punches Electric Car Buyers: Driscoll

The Chinese Role Model Collapses on the Progressives: AT
Earth Day or Green Indoctrination Day?: NewAm
“Don’t Talk To Someone Who’s Not Even A Climate Scientist”: RWN

Media

The MSM and The Narrative Style: Driscoll
Andrew Sullivan Gets Punked: Ace
Hilarious! Howard Fineman Blames Republicans For Obama’s Plummeting Poll Numbers: GWP

The heckler’s veto: variations on a theme: ProWis
Beck to Huck: “If you are this thin-skinned it might be best to stay on the sidelines with Michelle Obama”: WZ
Guest Post: Our Only Hope - You: ZH

Has Ryan Really Ruled Out Running?: Ace
The First Birthers Were Progressive Democrats: BigGovt
As Even More Protesters Are Killed In Syria, Washington Post Calls US Inaction Shameful: RWN

Over 50% of Dems Believe Bush Was Involved in Carrying out 9/11: WZ
Hateful Atrocity as Transvestite Beaten by Christian Fundamentalists. Oh, Wait …: RSM
Interview with Doug Ross: PunditPress

World

The Globalists’ Takeover of Argentina is a Blueprint for America: NoisyRoom
Happy Easter Commie Style: Chinese Police Detain ‘Illegal Church’ Members: WZ
Why is China spending billions in the Caribbean?: GlobalPost

John McCain Has a Lot To Answer For on Libya: PJM
Syria firing on funerals/protests: RedState
We’re doing what, now? Buying our warplanes from Brazil?: RWN

SciTech

NASA's Wondrous Views of Earth: CNet
Why You Should Care About the iPhone Location-Tracking Issue: Wired
A Simple Weight-Loss Plan That Worked: Instapundit

Cornucopia

Happy Easter!: WZ
Going to New York? Watch out for Mormon Terrorists!!: Cube
TSA Airport Screener Charged With Distributing Child Porn: WZ

Image: Wired
Today's Larwyn's Linx sponsored by: Yes, We're Still Looking for Marizela

Thứ Bảy, 23 tháng 4, 2011

Alex Merk: U.S. Is 'Headed for a Fiscal Train-Wreck'

The invaluable Chris Martenson interviewed Axel Merk last week and was kind enough to post the transcript. The latter is president of Merk Investments, which operates a handful of mutual funds specializing in currency arbitrage.

Merk's statements -- while not altogether surprising -- should send shivers down the spine of any American concerned with this country's future.

...One of the things [Bernanke] has said is that one of the great mistakes during the great depression was to tighten too early, and as a result we deepened then the great depression or had the second leg downward and so he does not want to do that and he wants to err on the side of inflation...

...Right now, I have been arguing that the Fed can get away with murder. And what I mean by that is that because this money does not really stick anywhere. All this money printing – yes, it shows up in the excess reserves in the banking system but not all of it causes significant inflation. We see it in food and in energy but it takes a while for it to trickle through...

...we have Bernanke who has explicitly stated last August in his Jackson Hole speech, he wants to have inflation move higher, and then he was upset that the market did not endorse him and he started QE2. He wants inflation expectations to move higher. He needs to have the price level more higher so that people are bailed out from their mortgages who are underwater. And in the early 80’s when Volker said he was going to contain inflation, people did not take him seriously and it took a while. Well now, Bernanke says he wants high inflation; it is the same thing happening all over. The market did not take him seriously and by all means we will get higher inflation and at some point the markets will realize Bernanke was dead serious.

...of course we have seen inflation in food and energy go up... In the rest of the world where we have exported our policies, we gets riots, revolutions and other things happening because the citizens are more disgruntled and you can oppress your people but if you do not feed them, they will start a revolution.

...in the short term we see Japan has for example: a very high budget deficit, a huge amount of debt, those numbers are not very relevant in the short term. But what matters a great deal is the sustainability of the deficit, and in the US the math simply does not work. And if anybody who looks at those numbers knows we are heading towards a fiscal train wreck. Now politicians know that as well - some of them still think that you can tax the rich and be able to somehow solve these problems. It simply does not work with the math. And so what we have to do is we have to tackle entitlements. We have to tell people that they have to work longer and by the way when social security was first introduced, it was set at above the average life expectancy age, we have to have people have skin in the game in healthcare, Medicare, Medicaid...

...as far as the dollar is concerned, it is that sustainability of the deficit that people are concerned about and we still have time, but the time is going to run out within a few years.

...think about what would happen if we were to raise rates to 4-5% and indeed countries like Portugal, they scream for help from the European union because their cost of borrowing was going to something like 5% and it has gone beyond that since. But still 5% is not that high, at the same time if you look at the municipal bond market in the US, some people are saying well, the interest service payment for the municipalities is not all that high. Well yes, because they are paying only 1-2% on the interest. Let that go up, let the Fed tighten and suddenly let that debt servicing double for those municipalities and then we are going to have very serious problems.

...But one of the challenges of having low interest rates for an extended period is that you encourage everybody to take debt, and not just consumers but also government and municipalities. So what happens is we have a far greater interest rate sensitivity and that means we are far less shock-resistant be that on the consumer side if you lose a job or be that on, just on the government side. And all the budget projects by the way, by the CBO are based on the current interest rate environment and it is just unrealistic to think that that is going to continue forever...

...[in the U.S.] if we are going to get interest rates to 4% or 5%, that would push us right back into a very severe recession, probably depression.

To try the quick executive summary: the unprecedented deficit spending of the Obama administration has put U.S. policy-makers in a box. They can't lower interest rates any further. If they raise rates, they will likely set off a global depression.

Put simply: there's a reason my Dad always told me 'there ain't no such thing as a free lunch.' Unchecked deficit spending is like a ticking time bomb. And the American people -- not the powerful policy-makers -- will be the victims.

Hat tip: Tyler Durden.

Predictable: Obama begins Chavez-like attacks on Oil Companies

Where have we heard this kind of rhetoric before?

The White House has joined congressional Democrats in targeting oil companies with criticism for nearly $4 per gallon gas.

President Obama lashed out at oil companies -- and the tax breaks they get from the government -- for a second day in a row on Thursday and again in Saturday's address... “Four billion dollars of your money are going to these companies at a time when they’re making record profits and you’re paying near record prices at the pump,” the president said at a Nevada town hall. “It has to stop.”

Obama also announced a Justice Department task force that will probe whether speculators and traders are to blame for the high prices.

Of course, these types of attacks appear to be more typical of third-world dictators than U.S. presidents. Just last year, Hugo Chavez blamed "the speculator" for causing food price inflation and he's demonized oil companies for years.

Chávez said [the currency devaluation] moves should not spur price increases, and on his Sunday radio and television address promised to punish those who do.

“There is no reason for anybody to be raising prices,” he said, calling on citizens to “publicly denounce the speculator” and promising to “take over any business, of any size, that plays the bourgeoisie speculation game.”

* * * * * * * * *
In his never-ending search for scapegoats, Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez is quick to point the finger ... Instead of Big Oil, this time he's hounding oil services companies, which do drilling, exploration, and other important work for state-owned Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA).

...Last time Chávez picked a fight with foreign oil companies, prices for Venezuela's heavy crudes were heading for record highs.

I don't know about you, but isn't it at least a tad discomfiting that the speeches of Chavez and Obama could be confused for one another?

Oh -- and then there's this: Mr. Peabody, please set the Wayback Machine to July of 2008, when the ludicrous Ken Salazar -- now Secretary of the Interior -- insisted that Democrats would continue to block drilling even if gas hit $10 a gallon.

Mitch McConnell (R-KY): "What is the definition of an emergency? Maybe it is $7.50 a gallon? Therefore I renew my consent request with the following modification... that the implementation date that triggers the modification would occur when the price of gasoline reaches seven dollars and fifty cents a gallon."

Ken Salazar (D-CO): "I... I... object".

MM: "Mr. President, I renew my request with the modification that the trigger be ten dollars a gallon at the pump."

KS: "I object."

* * *
We have enough oil to satisfy American needs for at least the next 100 years, but Democrats won’t let you have it. They’d rather you pay $10 per gallon at the pump and watch food prices increase 250% rather than agree to drilling. If you don’t want $10 per gallon gas, vote Republican.

And it's not just the Democrats' hatred of drilling.

It's the Obama administration's suicidal deficit spending that has resulted in unprecedented inflation of commodity prices.

The costs of silver, gold, oil, gas and food (above) have skyrocketed over the last two years.

Since Barack Obama took office, the policy of quantitative easing has touched off a monumental wave of inflation.

While our delightful bureaucrats in Washington insist that inflation "is under control", a quick drive to the gas station helps us refute that propaganda. Americans' costs for energy and everything it helps produce and move -- most importantly, food -- is dramatically increasing. This hidden tax on seniors, "the poor" and "the middle class" is the direct result of Barack Obama's policies of record-setting deficit spending and restricting our access to energy.

And the pain has only just begun. Remember in 2012.

Hat tip: Michelle Malkin.

Photos: How the XM25 Individual Airburst Weapon System ("Punisher") Works

Coolness.

A complete family of ammo is planned, including armor-piercing, anti-personnel, airburst and point-impact non-lethal rounds.

The HEAB round is a 25mm cartridge with fore and aft explosive warheads, and a mid-body airburst fuse... An operational firing scenario would involve the following: by viewing through the fire control display, the combat user puts the red-dot aim-point on the target, pushes the "Lase" button, realigns the aim-point on the target, and fires...

The range is automatically communicated upon firing to the chambered 25mm round -- and stored in the fuse logic.

Upon muzzle exit, the intelligent fuse, using a turns-counting approach, determines the distance traveled and bursts precisely over the engaged target at the programmed range.

...It leaves the enemy no place to hide.

The entire video is at StrategyPage. And Fox News has a slideshow.